WarrantyClaimExpert

Earn-Out Dispute Analysis

Construct but-for earn-out models and assess whether buyer conduct or accounting changes affected earn-out achievement.

Earn-out disputes arise when performance targets are not met or earn-out calculations are contested. Disputes commonly involve whether underperformance was genuine or caused by buyer conduct, and whether the agreed accounting basis was correctly applied.

The but-for analysis is the core forensic tool. The expert constructs a model showing what earn-out metrics would have been absent alleged misconduct or accounting errors, and compares it to the actual outcome.

SPA earn-out provisions typically require consistent accounting policies during the earn-out period. Where the buyer changes policies to reduce reported metrics, the expert must restate on a consistent basis.

Methodology

  • Review earn-out clause and accounting basis
  • Model but-for performance scenarios
  • Assess policy continuity during earn-out period
  • Quantify impact of alleged buyer conduct

Frequently Asked Questions

How does an expert establish buyer conduct prevented the earn-out?
The expert analyses earn-out metrics against the pre-acquisition business trajectory, the plan agreed at completion, and changes in strategy, resources, or policy made by the buyer. A but-for model shows what metrics would have been under fair conditions.
Can earn-out accounting disputes go to expert determination?
If the SPA earn-out clause specifies expert determination for accounting disputes, calculation issues may be referred to an independent accountant. Conduct disputes typically proceed to litigation or arbitration.
What earn-out metrics are most commonly disputed?
EBITDA, revenue, and gross profit are the most common earn-out metrics. Disputes arise over revenue recognition, cost allocation, capitalisation policies, and normalisation adjustments applied during the earn-out period.

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